Since I have not seen it mentioned anywhere else, I thought I should point out that Intade.com, the prediction market site, now has a contract covering whether or not the United States will go into a recession at any time during 2009. While the contract currently suggests a greater than 50% probability that the U.S. will slip into a recession in...
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Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Intrade Prediction Markets as a Sentiment Indicator
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Mutual Funds
Intrade.com is a fascinating place to park your brain from time to time. At this prediction market site, users can buy and sell binary options contracts that allow them to place bets on whether a future event will happen. Intrade has a broad range of contracts that cover everything from whether Osama Bin Laden will be captured by a particular month,...
Chart of the Week: Intrade and Control of the House of Representatives
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Mutual Funds
With everyone else thinking about double dip recessions, European bank stress tests and the like, my thoughts have wandered to the next U.S. elections, which are barely three months away. While there are a number of key questions that will be strongly influenced by the composition of Congress following the November elections, the fundamental question...
Chart of the Week: Money Market Mutual Funds
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Mutual Funds
When the first version of this week’s chart of the week first appeared on the blog in Chart of the Week: Change of Trend in Cash Holdings? in January 2009, it generated a surprising amount of controversy. A follow-up post in March 2009, Cash on the Sidelines Headed Back to Stocks? also seemed to polarize some of the readership here.In retrospect,...
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